It was simply reported that South Korea’s start price fell to a report low:
Korean ladies have been estimated, based mostly on 2021 information, to have a median of simply 0.81 kids over their lifetimes, down from 0.84 a yr earlier, the statistics workplace stated Wednesday.
A graph within the Bloomberg article supplies some context:
Individuals must cease speaking about Japan’s start price and begin speaking about Korea.
The world’s highest fertility price is in Niger, at 6.7 kids per girl. After all, South Korea and Niger differ in all types of how. But it surely’s price noting that South Korea’s lifetime fertility price was roughly 5 per girl again within the Fifties, a time when Korea was as poor as sub-Saharan Africa.
In the event you speak to folks in Korea, they’ll say that the start price is low as a result of Koreans can not afford giant households. That’s a bit odd on condition that (since 1960) South Korea has change into richer at a sooner price than another nation on Earth. How might Koreans within the Fifties afford giant households? How can residents of Niger afford giant households? Sure, you possibly can amend the argument to replicate rising expectations of the Korean center class, nevertheless it nonetheless appears in some way insufficient. It’s too straightforward a solution—as an example it doesn’t clarify the large hole with equally wealthy Japan.
There’s one other space the place Korea is a world chief—placing stress on college students to do properly in class with the intention to get accepted at good universities (and finally to get good jobs.) Maybe that aggressive drive is pushing down start charges, as Korean households attempt to maximize the typical success of their kids, not the overall success.
I typically surprise if extremely aggressive cultures are engaged in a form of zero sum sport arms race, making an attempt to do higher on arbitrary educational exams with the intention to get one step forward of their neighbor. That appears wasteful.
And but, I simply stated South Korea has the world’s quickest rising economic system since 1960, so it’s not apparent {that a} relentless drive to succeed is a foul factor. However maybe even a superb factor will be pushed too far. How necessary is a lot of additional hours of finding out, on the margin?
Individuals typically like to check the tutorial regimes of Sweden and Finland. By standard measures similar to check scores, Finland’s method is extra profitable than Sweden’s. The Swedes appear to focus extra on making college students pleased.
However there’s extra to life than check scores. For example, Sweden is richer than Finland, regardless of its much less aggressive training system. It’s additionally price noting that Sweden has a better birthrate. Discover that blue tinted Sweden is an island of fertility between the reddish-orange of Finland and Norway:
(In equity, the hole between the Swedish and Finnish instructional methods has narrowed lately.)
I’m agnostic on the optimum fertility price, and I’m additionally agnostic on the query of what makes folks pleased. Is having college students examine exhausting a superb factor? Is extra fertility a superb factor? Does extra GDP per capita make us happier (as soon as we’re a developed nation)? I don’t see the solutions to any of those questions as being apparent. And but I see different pundits speak about what’s finest with a excessive diploma of confidence.
PS. Israel is a case price occupied with. Secular Jews have about 2 kids per girl, whereas probably the most extremely non secular teams have about 6.6 kids per girl, akin to residents of Niger. This explains why Israel is an outlier amongst developed international locations.
Sci-fi books typically have Earthlings exploring the universe within the yr 3000. However I by no means see sci-fi books the place many of the starship crew is Amish folks, Haredi Jews, and Africans.
Severely, it’s silly to extrapolate present exponential development charges, because the one fixed in fertility is sudden change.
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